Economic Crosswinds and Fed Uncertainty: Positioning for 2026
With the historic government shutdown behind us, we dig back into key economic data captured over the duration of the shutdown: highlights include a modest improvement in housing activity, favorable labor market indicators despite data being somewhat stale, and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve amid uncertainty over December rate cuts. Equity markets showed heightened volatility, with strong earnings failing to sustain momentum, suggesting potential consolidation through year-end. Fixed income markets remain highly sensitive to Fed commentary, reflecting divergent views among policymakers. We also take a walk down memory lane to our 2025 predictions from last year—accurate on most calls—and preview the themes we think will impact 2026: global shifts toward nationalism, AI-driven disruption, and structural changes in financial markets. Please join us on December 3 for our last National Call of the year, when we’ll dig into these topics and take questions from the audience.
Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities
Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income
01:53 – Current Market and Economic Updates. Housing market improvement with existing home sales. Labor market stability, with unemployment claims holding and payrolls showing growth. Federal Reserve uncertainty, as October FOMC minutes reveal mixed opinions on rate cuts. Corporate earnings reports, which were strong but met with negative market reactions
08:04 – Equity Market Volatility and Seasonal Trends. Equity markets experienced an “outside day” with sharp reversals despite strong earnings. After strong September–October rallies, November–December may see consolidation rather than a typical year-end rally
11:46 – Fed Policy and Fixed Income Market Outlook. Fixed income markets are highly sensitive to Fed signals amid data gaps from the government shutdown. Divergence among Fed members on rate cuts vs. a pause creates volatility.
15:11 – We look back at our predictions from last year for 2025 trends and assess how accurate they were, and look ahead to our predictions for 2026, which we’ll cover in more depth at our upcoming December 3 webinar (registration link below).
Additional Resources