The Fed stayed put, inflation hasn’t cooled enough, and investors are penciling in the next rate cut at mid‑year. A light data slate backed that view—jobless claims remained low, productivity stayed strong, and producer prices firmed. The FOMC held rates at 3.50%–3.75% with two dissents for a 0.25% cut, keeping the focus on data while markets handicap a shallow easing path. Kevin Warsh’s nomination adds policy‑risk questions and could mean more debate inside the Committee. Equity breadth is improving as mega‑cap results diverge on AI spending, arguing for neutral risk with a quality tilt.

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

Cynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

00:01:35 — Week‑in‑review: jobs steady, productivity strong, prices a bit firmer

00:03:05 — Re-cap of this week’s FOMC Meeting

00:05:19 — New Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh; implications for policy independence and risk 

00:09:58 — Market prices a mid‑year cut; curve steepens as front‑end yields slip

00:13:04 — Mega‑cap earnings mixed; AI capex divergence; breadth improving 

00:21:08 — Disclosures and methodology; firm and product notices