This week’s discussion focuses on how geopolitical risk and shifting rate expectations are driving markets more than fundamentals. Attention stays on developments in Iran and what a potential ceasefire could mean for energy prices, the dollar, and near-term volatility.  Inflation remains a key swing factor, with mixed readings and a tone in recent Fed messaging that keeps the “higher for longer” debate alive.  Against that backdrop, earnings progress can still be overshadowed as real rates pressure valuations and keep the market macro-driven.  The conversation also frames what “fair value” looks like in municipal bonds versus Treasuries and why technicals and seasonality can matter in the months ahead.  The takeaway emphasizes patience, diversification, and selective opportunity while headline risk stays elevated.  For additional context, watch our national call replay Key Wealth National Call: Managing Wealth During the Fog of War, AI Disruption, & An Uncertain Economic Path.

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

Tim McDonough, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management

01:55 — The week’s inflation, employment, growth, and Iran setup 

04:10 — PCE vs. CPI: what each read implies for Fed policy 

10:15 — Strait of Hormuz risk and longer-run energy infrastructure shifts 

15:23 — Municipal bonds: March drawdown, ratios, and supply-demand headwinds 

20:34 — Closing message: volatility, diversification, and tuning out noise